专访｜高市早苗错误言论“将给日本经济带来根本性打击”——访日本无限合同会社首席经济学家田代秀敏

Core Viewpoint - The remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi regarding China and Japan-China relations are severely disconnected from reality, potentially leading to fundamental damage to the Japanese economy if not addressed promptly [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The relationship between Japanese and Chinese enterprises is tightly interwoven, with Japanese products containing components made in China and vice versa, making it impossible for Japan to decouple from China [1] - Japan's dependency on China is greater than the reverse, as China's economy is nearly five times larger than Japan's. A complete halt in trade and investment would pose existential risks for Japan, particularly affecting tourism, retail, and the film industry [1][2] - The tourism and retail sectors are crucial for employment in Japan, especially in areas suffering from population decline, which heavily rely on economic benefits and job opportunities from tourism [1] Group 2: Specific Sector Risks - Chinese tourists are the largest source of visitors to Japan, contributing approximately 30% to the total inbound consumption in the first three quarters of this year. A significant reduction in Chinese tourists would lead to substantial losses for both the retail and tourism industries, severely impacting local economies [2] - The Japanese television industry may also face challenges, as high-cost drama productions often rely on sales to the Chinese market for profitability. Any disruption in exports to China could result in significant financial losses [2] - The deeper risk lies in the supply chain, as nearly all Japanese industries are linked to China. Disruptions in the supply chain could lead to severe difficulties for Japanese companies, potentially undermining the foundation of the Japanese economy [2]