碳酸锂为何两日大涨的原因

Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are exceeding expectations, with winter conditions affecting lithium extraction in key regions like Qinghai and Tibet, leading to a projected capacity reduction of 15-20% [1] - Core mining operations are facing challenges, such as the Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine, which is unable to resume production due to incomplete mining rights processes, and the shutdown of some mica mines due to low lithium carbonate prices, resulting in ongoing supply contraction [1] - Demand remains robust, particularly in the energy storage market, with global energy storage cell shipments expected to surge by 75% year-on-year by 2025, and domestic new energy storage installations doubling [1] - The demand for power batteries continues to grow, with October vehicle installations increasing by 10.7% month-on-month, driven by a "rush to install" ahead of the end of tax exemptions for new energy vehicles [1] - A consensus reached between China and the U.S. to suspend lithium battery export controls for one year has further amplified demand [1] Inventory and Price Movements - Lithium carbonate social inventory has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks, dropping to a two-year low of 109,000 tons, with turnover days falling to 28.1 days, the lowest since futures listing [2] - The supply-demand gap in November is projected to reach 16,800 tons, widening from 12,600 tons in October, creating a solid foundation for price increases [2] Technical and Market Sentiment - After experiencing significant volatility, lithium carbonate futures prices rebounded, with a notable drop of 9% on November 21, followed by a further decline of 2.88% to 90,480 yuan/ton, nearing industry cost lines, indicating strong rebound demand [3] - Policy impacts are gradually dissipating, as adjustments to trading fees and limits on November 24 led to a temporary price drop, but the market quickly absorbed this negative news, allowing prices to rise again based on fundamental pricing logic [3] Industry Chain and Financial Support - The price transmission within the industry chain is evident, with upstream lithium spodumene prices reaching 3,000 USD/ton, increasing production costs for lithium carbonate, while downstream processing fees for lithium iron phosphate have also risen significantly [4] - The futures market for lithium carbonate has maintained a holding volume of over 1 million contracts, attracting significant attention from investors, with trading volumes on November 25 reaching 511,300 contracts, indicating strong bullish sentiment [4]