日本经济学家：高市早苗错误言论“将给日本经济带来根本性打击”

Core Insights - The remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding China and Japan-China relations are significantly disconnected from reality, potentially leading to severe repercussions for the Japanese economy [1] - The interdependence between Japanese and Chinese companies is critical, with Japan being more reliant on China, which has an economy nearly five times larger than Japan's [1][2] - A complete disruption of trade and investment between the two countries would pose existential risks for Japan, particularly affecting key sectors such as tourism, retail, and the film industry [1][2] Tourism and Retail Sector - Chinese tourists are the largest source of visitors to Japan, contributing approximately 30% to the total inbound consumption in the first three quarters of this year [2] - A significant reduction in Chinese tourist numbers would lead to substantial losses for Japan's retail and tourism industries, severely impacting local economies [2] Film Industry - The Japanese television industry may face challenges as the production of high-cost dramas often relies on sales to the Chinese market for profitability [2] - Any negative impact on the export of Japanese dramas to China could result in considerable financial losses for the industry [2] Supply Chain Risks - The deterioration of Japan-China relations poses deeper risks to supply chains, as nearly all Japanese industries are linked to China [2] - Disruptions in the supply chain could lead to significant operational challenges for Japanese companies, potentially undermining the foundation of the Japanese economy [2] Economic Outlook - If the current tensions persist, there is a risk of a severe economic recession in Japan next year, particularly if investor confidence is shaken [2]