人民币与美元惊现“双强”格局！汇率刷新逾一年高位背后

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rare phenomenon of both the US dollar and the Chinese yuan showing strength simultaneously in the global foreign exchange market, with the yuan reaching its highest level in over a year while the dollar index rises above the 100 mark [1][10]. Group 1: Yuan's Strength - The yuan has recently appreciated against the US dollar, with both onshore and offshore yuan crossing the 7.09 mark, marking a significant increase [1]. - The three major yuan exchange rate indices have also reached new highs, with the CFETS index at 98.22, the BIS index at 104.66, and the SDR index at 92.60 [1]. - Analysts attribute the yuan's strength to its robust performance against non-US currencies and increased capital market activity, which has boosted confidence in the yuan [2][9]. Group 2: Factors Supporting the Dollar - The dollar index's rise above 100 is supported by several factors, including the collective weakness of non-US currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, which has been under pressure due to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy [4][6]. - Market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have diminished, contributing to the dollar's resilience [5]. - Additional factors such as reduced employment concerns, temporary alleviation of worries regarding the Fed's independence, and increased risk aversion have also bolstered the dollar [6] . Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict limited upward potential for the dollar index, while the yuan is expected to remain strong, supported by seasonal demand for currency exchange in the fourth quarter [7][8]. - The yuan's appreciation is anticipated to continue due to stable cross-border capital flows and balanced supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [9]. - The article suggests that the yuan's internationalization is a key policy focus for the Chinese government, with expectations for significant acceleration in the coming years [10][11].