KCM Trade分析师Tim汇评| 市场对利率和科技板块的情绪由悲观转为乐观

Group 1 - The market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December has shifted from pessimism to optimism, with the likelihood of a rate cut increasing from nearly 40% to over 80% due to dovish comments from Fed officials and weak retail sales and PPI data [1][3] - The technology sector's outlook has improved significantly, driven by discussions around Google's Gemini 3 AI model and Meta's investment plans, alleviating concerns about AI profitability that had troubled global markets for most of November [1][3] Group 2 - The weak U.S. macroeconomic data has led to a decline in the U.S. dollar, with the DXY index falling below 100, and the USD/JPY exchange rate dropping from 157 to 156, prompting traders to monitor potential interventions by Japanese authorities [3] - Gold prices have shown signs of recovery, trading around $4,132 per ounce, supported by the changing interest rate outlook, with key support levels at $4,116, $4,087, and $4,042, and resistance levels at $4,165, $4,290, and $4,237 [3] - Oil prices are closely tied to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, with U.S. crude support at $57.10 per barrel and resistance at $58.93, while the potential return of Russian oil to the global market limits upside [5]