NVIDIA Nears Buy Zone as Rumors Swirl About China Chip Deal

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA is potentially on the verge of selling its H200 chips to China, which could significantly impact its stock price, although no sales have been logged yet for the recent quarter [2][3]. Group 1: Sales Potential and Market Impact - The Trump administration is considering allowing NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China, which would be a bonus for the company as its stock price is already on the rise [3]. - Historically, China has contributed 13% to 15% of NVIDIA's annual revenue, indicating that sales to China could substantially enhance revenue expectations, potentially adding up to $7.4 billion to fiscal Q3 results [5]. - The demand for NVIDIA's H200 chips in China is high due to the lack of comparable AI-specific GPUs from local competitors like Huawei [4]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Market Dynamics - Trade relations between the U.S. and China complicate the situation, as China has expressed a preference for domestic technology over foreign semiconductors [6]. - Both the U.S. and China are focused on securing their domestic technology supply chains, which may affect NVIDIA's ability to sell chips in China despite potential approvals [7]. - While sales to China would be beneficial for NVIDIA, the company does not rely on them for continued stock price growth, as recent earnings reports indicate strong performance and guidance [8].