2026年铜行业展望：流动性叠加供需，重视有色的资源属性-中邮证券

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is expected to experience an overall upward trend in prices in 2025, with the highest price reaching 88,700 yuan/ton, influenced by multiple factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical issues, and supply-demand disturbances. Looking ahead to 2026, a widening supply-demand gap and price increases are anticipated due to sustained tight supply, optimized demand structure, and loose liquidity, highlighting the investment value of the copper industry [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - Global copper mine supply is under long-term pressure, with a growth rate of only 1.77% expected in 2024, the lowest in recent years, due to declining ore grades, insufficient new discoveries, and lengthy development cycles of up to 17 years [1]. - In 2025, supply disruptions increased significantly, with incidents such as the Grasberg mine disaster in Indonesia, power outages in Chile, and mechanical failures leading to a year-on-year decrease of 134,000 tons in global copper mine output [1][2]. - The concentration of global copper production is high, with the top ten copper mines accounting for 23.96% of total output, making the supply chain vulnerable to disruptions from single mine shutdowns [1][2]. Demand Side Summary - Demand characteristics show a stable traditional demand and a high growth in new demand, with China accounting for 58% of global copper demand, supported by manufacturing and grid investments. The re-industrialization in the U.S. and India's development further opens up demand space [2]. - New energy sectors, including electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power, are expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 7.83% from 2026 to 2030, significantly increasing copper consumption compared to traditional sectors [2]. - AI-related demand is surging, with AI servers using several times more copper than traditional servers, and the expected increase in copper demand from AI applications could reach 764,800 tons by 2030 [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will release liquidity, providing financial support for copper prices. Despite uncertainties in the rate cut path, copper is expected to perform well as a risk asset amid expectations of an economic soft landing [2]. - Improved Sino-U.S. relations are expected to reduce market uncertainties and lessen short-term pressure on copper prices [2]. Price Outlook - The global copper market is projected to maintain a supply-demand gap in 2026, with LME copper prices expected to reach $13,000/ton and Shanghai copper prices potentially exceeding 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a clear upward trend in copper prices in the long term [2]. Investment Opportunities - Companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper are expected to benefit significantly from the industry's favorable cycle due to their scale advantages and potential for capacity growth [2].