美联储12月降息预期升至80％，什么原因？

Core Insights - The U.S. retail sales for September showed a slight increase, indicating that some lower-income consumers are becoming more cautious due to inflation and employment challenges [1] - The Federal Reserve faces internal disagreements regarding potential interest rate cuts, influenced by the recent weak consumer confidence and retail data [2] Group 1: Retail Sales Data - U.S. retail sales rose by 0.2% in September, down from a 0.6% increase in August, with sales excluding automobiles and gasoline growing only by 0.1% [1] - Eight out of thirteen retail categories reported growth, primarily driven by sales at gas stations, personal care stores, and miscellaneous retailers [1] - Sales of motor vehicles declined for the first time in four months, while electronics, clothing, and sporting goods saw a decrease [1] Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence in November experienced its largest drop in seven months, with the index falling by 6.8 points to 88.7, significantly below economists' median expectation of 93.3 [1] - The income gap is a concern for the Federal Reserve, as the labor market shows signs of softening and inflation pressures persist [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of the retail data, U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December increased to approximately 80% from 30% [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement its third consecutive rate cut in December, citing easing inflation and a cooling labor market as justifications [3] - In contrast, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have retracted their predictions for a December rate cut, citing the resilience of the economy as indicated by the recent employment report [3]