稀土霸权：中国如何将资源优势转化为战略武器？

Core Insights - The strategic value of rare earths, referred to as "industrial vitamins," is increasingly highlighted amid intensifying global technological competition [1] - The report analyzes the U.S.-China rare earth competition from five dimensions: resources, technology, ecology, policy, and capital, revealing China's systemic advantages and the strategic dilemmas faced by the U.S. [1] Group 1: Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earths are not "earth" but a collective term for 17 metallic elements, categorized into light and heavy rare earths [2] - Light rare earths serve as the industrial foundation due to their abundance, while heavy rare earths are critical for high-tech and military applications due to their scarcity and high value [3] Group 2: China's "Threefold Hegemony" - Resource hegemony: China holds nearly half of the global reserves and accounts for 70% of production [4] - Technological hegemony: China dominates the entire industrial chain and has a significant patent advantage [4] - Cost hegemony: China can maintain profitability even with price increases in the rare earth market [4] Group 3: U.S.-China Rare Earth Competition - The U.S. attempts to "decouple" from China but faces significant challenges [4] - China is transitioning from "export control" to "full chain control" over rare earths [4] Group 4: Comparative Analysis of U.S. and China - Technological dimension: There is a significant gap between laboratory capabilities and industrial production [4] - Ecological dimension: China benefits from industrial clusters and cost advantages [4] - Policy dimension: China exhibits strategic consistency, while the U.S. shows political fluctuations [4] - Capital dimension: The Chinese market is driven by market forces, whereas the U.S. relies on subsidies [4] Group 5: Future Demand for Rare Earths - Electric vehicles require 2-3 kg of neodymium-iron-boron per vehicle [4] - Humanoid robots will need 3.5 kg each, with demand expected to exceed 17,500 tons by 2035 [4] - eVTOL aircraft will require 10-20 kg each, with an annual compound growth rate of 40% [4] - Military applications: An F-35 uses 417 kg of rare earths, while a nuclear submarine requires 4 tons [4] Group 6: Future of China's Rare Earths - China is evolving from a "resource-exporting country" to a "supply chain controlling country" [6] - The country is implementing a traceability system for full-process monitoring from mining to product [6] - China is prohibiting the export of key technologies related to smelting, processing, and recycling [6] - The country is diversifying its resource imports from Myanmar, Africa, and other regions to address resource shortages [6] - This shift positions China as a core player with pricing power, technical standards, and supply chain security [5]