Vision Pro不是iPhone：短期内不会对苹果业务产生实质影响

Core Insights - Analysts indicate that Apple's mixed reality headset, Vision Pro, is unlikely to have a significant impact on the company's business in the coming years [1] - Compared to previous products like iPod, iPhone, and iPad, Vision Pro will require more time to become a popular product and drive revenue growth [1][3] Product Launch and Market Strategy - Apple plans to launch Vision Pro in early 2024, initially limited to select markets in the U.S. and requiring reservations for purchase, highlighting its niche and complex nature [1] - The initial price of Vision Pro is set at $3,700, significantly higher than the Apple Watch's starting price of $349, which may limit its market penetration [4][6] Sales Performance and Projections - Historical context shows that iPod, iPhone, and iPad quickly became major revenue contributors, while Apple Watch took longer to gain traction [3][4] - Initial sales targets for Vision Pro were set at millions but have since been revised down to an estimated 400,000 to 500,000 units for the first year, projecting around $1.5 billion in revenue [5][6] Future Developments - Apple is expected to introduce a more affordable version of Vision Pro and a second-generation model by 2026, which may include enhanced features and improved connectivity [6] - For Vision Pro to achieve sales comparable to iPad, it would need to increase its annual sales to approximately 8 million units, a target deemed unlikely given current pricing and market conditions [5][6]