海通国际：维持石药集团“优于大市”评级 成药各板块收入环比改善

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains an "outperform" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) with a target price of HKD 11.34, noting a revenue decline in the first three quarters but signs of recovery in Q3, with a 10% quarter-on-quarter growth in prescription drug revenue and a 27% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, CSPC achieved revenue of CNY 19.9 billion, a 12% year-on-year decline, with prescription drug revenue at CNY 15.5 billion (down 17%), API revenue at CNY 3 billion (up 10%), and functional foods and other businesses at CNY 1.4 billion (up 11%) [2]. - The gross margin was 65.6%, down 4.9 percentage points year-on-year; R&D expenses were CNY 4.2 billion (up 8%), with an R&D expense ratio of 21.0% (up 3.9 percentage points); the sales expense ratio was 24.1% (down 5.1 percentage points) [2]. - In Q3 2025, CSPC reported revenue of CNY 6.6 billion, a 3% year-on-year increase and a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase, with prescription drug revenue at CNY 5.2 billion (up 2% year-on-year, up 10% quarter-on-quarter) [2]. Prescription Drug Business - In Q3 2025, all segments of the prescription drug business showed improvement, confirming the bottom of the fundamentals, with total prescription drug revenue of CNY 4.7 billion and drug revenue of CNY 4.7 billion (up 8% quarter-on-quarter) [3]. - Specific revenue breakdown includes: - Neurological system: CNY 1.91 billion (down 4% year-on-year, up 4% quarter-on-quarter) - Oncology: CNY 590 million (down 47% year-on-year, up 19% quarter-on-quarter) - Anti-infection: CNY 830 million (down 9% year-on-year, up 12% quarter-on-quarter) - Cardiovascular: CNY 470 million (up 18% year-on-year, up 4% quarter-on-quarter) - Respiratory: CNY 320 million (up 73% year-on-year, up 28% quarter-on-quarter) - Metabolism: CNY 250 million (up 14% year-on-year, up 8% quarter-on-quarter) - Other therapeutic areas: CNY 360 million (up 26% year-on-year, down 4% quarter-on-quarter) [3]. - The company expects a 5% revenue growth in the second half of the year for the prescription drug segment (excluding authorized revenue) [3]. Asset Expansion and R&D Progress - The SYS6010 (EGFRADC) clinical trial is progressing well, with significant potential for external licensing; multiple technology platforms and products are also expected to expand internationally [4]. - Management plans to present clinical data for SYS6010 at major conferences next year and publish data in top academic journals [5]. - The small RNA platform has five assets entering clinical stages, focusing on liver-targeted and multi-target products, with plans for new products in weight loss and muscle gain to enter clinical trials next year [6]. - The PD-1/IL15 pipeline is a key focus, with over 90 patients enrolled in dose-exploration trials, showing promising safety and efficacy results [6].