降息大消息！期钢震荡飘绿！钢价要跌？

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing slight declines in both spot and futures prices, with a mixed outlook due to varying demand and supply factors, including a notable increase in housing project funding and ongoing pressures from rising crude steel production [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 26, the domestic steel market saw a slight decline, with major futures contracts primarily trending downwards, including rebar down 0.06% and hot-rolled coil down 0.03% [1][4]. - The average price of rebar (HRB400 25MM) is reported at 3269 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 12 yuan [5]. - The futures market closed with most major contracts showing declines, particularly rebar and hot-rolled coil, while iron ore saw a minor increase of 0.19% [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, key steel enterprises produced 1,943 million tons of crude steel in mid-November, with a daily production rate of 194.3 thousand tons, reflecting a 0.9% increase month-on-month [2]. - The inventory of steel materials reached 1,561 million tons, up 0.8% from the previous period, indicating increasing supply pressure that may negatively impact steel prices [2]. - The funding rate for housing projects has increased by 0.7% to 53.99%, reaching a recent high, while overall funding rates for construction sites have decreased by 0.24 percentage points to 59.56% [3]. Group 3: Raw Material Market - The price of imported iron ore has seen a slight increase, with supply from Australia and Brazil decreasing, but domestic arrivals rising significantly [9]. - Coke prices are stable, with supply gradually increasing due to higher operating rates in coke enterprises, although downstream purchasing enthusiasm is declining [9]. - Scrap steel prices remain stable with minor fluctuations, as supply tightens and demand shows divergence, particularly with electric arc furnace steel mills facing losses [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of steel prices stabilizing or slightly declining in the near term due to weak seasonal demand and mixed performance in raw materials [10].