申万宏源:可复用技术引领变革 商业火箭开启千亿蓝海市场
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-26 08:37

Core Viewpoint - The reusable rocket technology is a major direction for the future development of commercial launch vehicle technology, which will gradually become the mainstay of the international space launch market [1][2]. Group 1: Commercial Rocket Industry Overview - The commercial space sector is becoming dominant in the global aerospace industry, marking the beginning of a golden era for commercial launch vehicles [2]. - Various types of launch vehicles can be classified based on energy types, payload sizes, and launch methods, consisting mainly of structural systems, propulsion systems, and control systems [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Technological Advancements - The global competition in commercial launch vehicles is intense, with the U.S. leading the industry due to the reusable technology of Falcon 9 and Glenn 1 rockets, significantly reducing launch costs [3]. - China's commercial launch development is accelerating, supported by policies that promote rapid growth in the commercial space sector, with breakthroughs in both solid and liquid rocket engines [3]. Group 3: Market Potential and Projections - The demand for satellite constellation construction is driving the rapid deployment of launch plans, with a total of 51,300 low-orbit satellites applied for, leading to an expected increase in launch frequency [4]. - By 2030, it is projected that China will exceed 900 launch missions, with an estimated market space of $63.2 billion, based on an average launch cost of $69.75 million per mission [4]. Group 4: Industry Chain Structure - The domestic launch vehicle industry chain consists of upstream, midstream, and downstream segments, with a collaborative structure in place [5]. - Upstream includes basic raw materials and electronic components; midstream is divided into rocket body structure, propulsion system, and control system; downstream focuses on the final assembly of launch vehicles [5].