太平洋证券：养猪业产能去化动力增强 去化速度或加快

Group 1 - The pig farming industry has been experiencing continuous losses for 10 weeks, currently in a moderate loss state, with an average loss of 135 RMB per head in major production areas, which is an increase of 21 RMB from the previous week [1][2] - The national average price for live pigs is 11.64 RMB per kilogram, down 0.09 RMB from the previous week, while the average price for 15-kilogram piglets remains stable at 23.86 RMB per kilogram [1][2] - The industry is facing three pressures: declining market prices, rising epidemic risks, and policy pressures, leading to an expected increase in the motivation for capacity reduction [1][2] Group 2 - The slaughtering situation is stable, with a year-on-year increase of 18.7% in pig output from 17 listed companies in October, indicating a short-term supply surplus [2] - The operating rate of large-scale slaughter enterprises is 35.85%, up 1.48 percentage points from the previous week and 4.49 percentage points from the same period last year [2] - The total number of breeding sows in the country is 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month and 370,000 from the peak at the end of last year [2] Group 3 - The valuation of most listed breeding companies is at historical lows, indicating significant potential for long-term investment [3][6] - The chicken industry is experiencing low price fluctuations, with broiler prices at historical lows, but there is potential for price increases in the medium term due to supply trends [4] - The yellow chicken prices have been rising, influenced by seasonal demand recovery, while the industry capacity remains at historically low levels [5][6] Group 4 - The animal health industry has shown signs of recovery, with optimistic performance expected in the third-quarter reports of major listed companies [7] - Prices for key antibiotics remain high, and there is significant growth in the sales of domestic vaccines, indicating a positive outlook for companies engaged in pet health [7]