供应端刹不住车，需求端也跑不起来

Group 1 - The core issue in the real estate market is oversupply, necessitating a dual approach: halting land auctions in cities with excess inventory and stimulating demand through measures like zero-interest loans and reduced transaction taxes [2][5] - The complexity arises from the involvement of fiscal interests, making what seems simple more complicated [3] - The supply side cannot be effectively controlled, and the demand side struggles to gain momentum due to the unique nature of land ownership in China, where local governments hold pricing power [5][6] Group 2 - Despite a downward trend in real estate indicators in the first half of 2025, land transfer fees continue to rise significantly, highlighting the local governments' reliance on these revenues [6] - The expectation of gradual resolution through limited supply and demand adjustments suggests a prolonged period of market stagnation [6] - A potential shift in expectations could occur if significant monetary easing is implemented, as suggested by Goldman Sachs, which may lead to a debt-driven model and ultimately currency devaluation [6][7]