TSMC(US:TSM) Xin Lang Ke Ji·2025-11-26 09:14Core Viewpoint - TSMC has experienced a significant decline in market value, losing $77 billion since mid-June, primarily due to concerns over macroeconomic conditions and weak global consumer electronics demand [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - TSMC's stock price has dropped 11% from its June peak, leading to the largest market value loss in Asia [1]. - The company's 12-month earnings forecast has been revised down by approximately 8% from last October's high [4]. Group 2: Industry Concerns - There is growing skepticism among traders regarding the profitability contributions from the AI boom, especially as smartphone and personal computer markets remain sluggish [3]. - High-end AI chip orders are declining faster than expected, with major clients like Nvidia and AMD potentially delaying chip orders until 2025 [4]. Group 3: Capital Expenditure Outlook - Analysts have become cautious about TSMC's capital expenditures, with estimates now averaging around $30 billion, down from the previously indicated range of $32-36 billion [3]. - Goldman Sachs has reduced its forecast for TSMC's capital expenditures for next year by over 20% to $25 billion, marking the lowest level since the pandemic began [3]. Group 4: Competitive Position - Despite challenges, TSMC maintains a strong market share of 59% in chip manufacturing, significantly ahead of its closest competitor, Samsung, which holds 11% [6]. - Analysts continue to hold a positive outlook on TSMC, with no sell ratings and a 12-month average target price 24% above the recent closing price [6]. Group 5: Future Expectations - Investors are expected to remain cautious until there is a broader economic recovery, with inventory adjustments from TSMC's clients anticipated to extend into the first or even second quarter of next year [6].