外汇商品 | 暖春开局，牛市延续——2026年贵金属展望

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the logic for the long-term rise in gold prices remains intact, with manageable adjustments expected in 2025 and a favorable outlook for 2026 due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and inventory cycles [1][30][64] - Gold prices are projected to have a central expected return of $4,993 per ounce, with an upper limit of $5,793 and a lower limit of $4,193 based on various models [1][69] - The cumulative increase in gold prices for 2025 is reported at 57.60% for London gold, 52.96% for Shanghai gold, and 77.71% for London silver, indicating strong performance among precious metals [2] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a "soft landing" in 2026, with a potential rebound in housing demand and investment cycles supporting gold prices [31][38] - The inventory cycle is anticipated to reach a low in the first half of 2026, with a possible recovery in the second half, which may influence gold price movements [32][38] - The macroeconomic environment is projected to favor the U.S. dollar in a low-growth scenario, which could have implications for gold prices [44][45] Group 3 - The development of cryptocurrencies is currently seen as having limited negative impact on gold prices, especially as Bitcoin's status faces scrutiny [57][58] - The introduction of "digital gold" by the World Gold Council aims to enhance the accessibility and liquidity of gold, potentially increasing its competitiveness in the digital asset space [59][60] - Historical patterns suggest that significant adjustments in gold prices typically occur after strong upward trends, with adjustments expected to remain controlled through the end of 2025 [64][65]