Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-26 10:16Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that despite NIO's conservative delivery guidance for Q4, the gross margin for vehicles is expected to improve significantly due to product structure optimization and economies of scale [1][7]. Group 1: Q3 Financial Performance - NIO's Q3 net loss narrowed to 3.7 billion RMB, better than Morgan Stanley's expectation of a 4.3 billion RMB loss, primarily due to a 4.4 percentage point increase in vehicle gross margin to 14.7% [1][4]. - Vehicle revenue grew by 19% quarter-on-quarter, and delivery volume increased by 21%, although the average selling price slightly declined [4][6]. - The overall gross margin improved by 3.9 percentage points to 13.9%, exceeding the expected 10.9% [6]. Group 2: Q4 Guidance and Expectations - NIO's Q4 delivery guidance is set at 120,000 to 125,000 vehicles, lower than Morgan Stanley's previous expectation of 150,000 vehicles, indicating an average monthly delivery of about 42,000 vehicles in November and December [7]. - The revenue guidance for Q4 is between 32.8 billion and 34 billion RMB, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 50-56%, suggesting a high single-digit percentage increase in average selling price [7]. - Morgan Stanley projects a Q4 vehicle gross margin of 18%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.3 percentage points, driven by economies of scale, supply chain cost savings, and a higher proportion of high-margin models sold [7][8]. Group 3: 2026 Outlook - NIO's management provided a positive outlook for 2026, planning to launch three large SUV models—NIO ES9, ES7, and L80—in Q2 to Q3, which will support sales growth [8]. - The target for vehicle gross margin in 2026 is set at 20%, based on supply chain cost savings, economies of scale, and product structure optimization [8]. - NIO aims to control R&D expenses at 2 billion RMB per quarter and maintain sales and management expenses at 10% of total revenue [8].