期铜上涨，因疲软美国数据提高美联储降息预期

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have risen due to weak U.S. economic data increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1][2]. Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - The most actively traded January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 170 yuan or 0.20%, closing at 86,590 yuan per ton [1]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price increased by 74 USD or 0.68%, reaching 10,892 USD per ton [2]. - U.S. economic data released showed a 0.2% increase in September retail sales, below the expected 0.4% growth, and a previous increase of 0.6% [2]. Group 2: Global Copper Supply and Demand - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a 51,000-ton deficit in the global refined copper market for September, contrasting with a surplus of 41,000 tons in August [3]. - For the first nine months of the year, the market showed a surplus of 94,000 tons, down from a surplus of 310,000 tons in the same period last year [3]. - September's global refined copper production was 2.37 million tons, while consumption was 2.42 million tons [3]. Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low, with market focus shifting towards negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas miners regarding long-term processing fees as the year-end approaches [3]. - Other base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed performance, with aluminum rising by 5 yuan or 0.02% to 21,455 yuan per ton, and nickel increasing by 1,130 yuan or 0.97% to 117,260 yuan per ton [3].