有色金属，又赢了一次

Core Viewpoint - The most significant growth in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks this year is observed in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly gold, silver, copper, and aluminum, with the A-share non-ferrous sector rising 75% since 2025, leading all industries [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other sectors, with Hong Kong's non-ferrous sector showing even greater gains than A-shares, particularly in core leaders within copper, gold, and aluminum [1][4]. - Specific stocks such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum have seen substantial increases, with Zijin's H-shares rising 123% and Luoyang Molybdenum's H-shares increasing 222% [4][6]. - The top five performing sectors in the market are all related to non-ferrous metals, indicating a strong trend in this industry [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand dynamics are crucial, with significant supply constraints in key metals like copper due to mining accidents and geopolitical risks, leading to a tight supply situation expected to persist into 2025 [9][10]. - The demand for non-ferrous metals is driven by the growth of the global economy, technological advancements, and the increasing need for resources in industries such as electric vehicles and renewable energy [10][11]. - Projections indicate a substantial copper deficit by 2030, with estimates ranging from 200,000 to 400,000 tons, highlighting the ongoing supply challenges [11][12]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to remain in a favorable economic cycle for the next few years, supported by a tight supply-demand balance [13][14]. - The U.S. has recognized the importance of non-ferrous metals for its energy transition and high-end manufacturing, leading to increased domestic production efforts and strategic resource accumulation [13][14]. - The overall trend suggests that non-ferrous metal resources will continue to see both volume and price increases in the future [14][27]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investment focus should be on leading companies with strong resource reserves, scale, and integrated supply chains, such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Hongqiao [26][27]. - Companies involved in lithium and cobalt, which are closely tied to battery production, as well as those benefiting from the demand for copper and aluminum in energy storage and AI infrastructure, are also recommended for investment [26][27]. - The market sentiment remains positive for the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant inflows of capital despite recent market adjustments [25][26].