电商“掼蛋局”，没有人愿意“下牌桌”

Core Insights - The e-commerce industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, moving from a phase of rapid growth to a deep adjustment, with traditional players facing increasing competition from new entrants like Douyin and Xiaohongshu [1][4][5] - Major e-commerce platforms are experiencing pressure on profitability despite revenue growth, indicating a shift in market dynamics [8][9][10] Financial Performance - Alibaba reported a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan for Q2 2026, a 5% year-on-year increase, but its adjusted net profit plummeted by 72% to 10.35 billion yuan [8] - JD.com achieved a revenue growth of 14.9% to 299.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, but its net profit fell by 54.7% [9] - Pinduoduo's revenue growth slowed to 9%, marking a second consecutive quarter of deceleration [9] Market Dynamics - The e-commerce market is seeing a structural change, with the concentration ratio (CR2) dropping from 60% in 2022 to 57% by early 2025, while CR5 surged from 84% to 93% [4] - Online retail penetration has plateaued, with the share of online sales of physical goods stabilizing between 24-27% of total retail sales [5] Competitive Landscape - New players like Douyin and Xiaohongshu are intensifying competition, leading to price wars and increased reliance on traffic subsidies, which undermine long-term profitability [10] - Merchants are facing challenges with diminishing returns on advertising and promotional efforts, indicating a need for more sustainable growth strategies [10] Strategic Adjustments - E-commerce platforms are exploring new growth avenues, such as instant retail and leveraging AI technologies to enhance operational efficiency [12][15] - Alibaba is integrating its platforms and focusing on instant retail, while JD.com is expanding its food delivery services, both of which are impacting their profit margins [14][24] Future Outlook - The e-commerce market is projected to reach approximately $1.5 trillion globally by 2025, with a focus on quality improvement over mere scale expansion [19] - Companies are encouraged to prioritize technological innovation, supply chain optimization, and enhanced user experiences to thrive in the evolving landscape [19][25]