港股IPO持续排队，创新药如何持续跑完“烧钱马拉松”？

Core Insights - The number of biopharmaceutical companies applying for IPOs in Hong Kong has exceeded 80, marking a historical high, with 23 companies successfully listed this year, doubling last year's figures [1][2] - The valuation logic for innovative drugs in Hong Kong is a combination of market sentiment and fundamentals, with a shift towards more rational valuations following recent corrections [1][3] - The IPO congestion is expected to persist until 2026, with high-quality companies more likely to secure listings while weaker firms may face a cycle of queuing and failure [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The introduction of the "Specialized Technology Company Route" by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has improved the efficiency of the IPO process, allowing companies to submit applications confidentially [2] - The tightening of the cornerstone investor lock-up period and the reduction of the minimum allocation for cornerstone investors have intensified the urgency for companies to secure IPO windows [3][5] - The financing needs of innovative drug companies are critical, as drug development is a capital-intensive process requiring significant upfront investment [4] Group 2: Valuation Trends - The post-2021 valuation correction has led to a contraction in the financing scale for many small biotech firms, making the Hong Kong market a vital source of capital [5][6] - There is a clear differentiation in the IPO landscape, with leading companies easily securing large financing while smaller firms struggle [5][6] - The ongoing shift in the valuation system is characterized by a divergence between primary and secondary market valuations, driven by the recognition gap between potential and realized value [7][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Chinese innovative drug sector is still in a favorable position for international business development, as many multinational companies face patent cliffs [6][9] - The improvement in the quality of domestic innovative drugs and the mutual recognition of clinical data by regulatory bodies are expected to enhance long-term profitability [6][9] - The trend of license-out agreements is emerging as a key mechanism to bridge valuation gaps, providing companies with stable upfront payments and milestone revenues [8][9]