Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-26 12:45Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has adjusted Alibaba's ADR valuation to $54, maintaining a "Buy" rating, due to the strong predictability of Alibaba Cloud as China's largest cloud service provider [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Alibaba aims to significantly improve the unit economics of its food delivery and instant retail business, with losses peaking in September but halved in October compared to July and August [1] - Goldman Sachs has lowered its growth forecast for core e-commerce EBITA (excluding instant retail) for fiscal years 2026/27/28 from 2%/11%/9% to 1%/5%/5% [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026-28 have been revised down by 12% to an increase of 4%, reflecting a downgrade in customer management revenue growth expectations and reinvestment in e-commerce [1] Group 2: Valuation Adjustments - The 12-month target price based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation method has been reduced from $205/199 HKD to $197/192 HKD, reflecting a downgrade in the valuation of the Chinese e-commerce business [1] - The valuation for Alibaba Cloud remains unchanged, as the company's AI-driven investment theme continues to focus on AI applications in daily consumption (Taobao + Gaode Map) and as a large-scale cloud service provider [1]