“白宫系”代表或成美联储主席 “全球资产定价之锚”跌破4%

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly betting on significant cuts to the US dollar interest rates in the coming year, especially with Kevin Hassett emerging as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair [2][4][5]. Group 1: Candidate Analysis - Kevin Hassett is viewed as a strong candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair due to his alignment with Trump's economic views, particularly the need for further interest rate cuts [4][5]. - Hassett's previous involvement in Trump's administration and economic policy design gives him an advantage over other candidates [4]. - The current Treasury Secretary, Scott Basset, is leading the selection process for the next Fed Chair, with Hassett being one of five candidates [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent employment and retail sales data have fallen short of expectations, which has heightened the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][7]. - The ADP employment report indicated an average weekly job loss of 13,500 positions, raising concerns about consumer demand and employment growth [7]. - Retail sales in September rose only 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 4%, reflecting market expectations for a more dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - The decline in bond yields is attributed to both the anticipated dovish stance of the Fed and the recent weak economic data [8]. - Analysts predict that if Hassett is appointed and economic conditions worsen, the Fed may initiate aggressive rate cuts, potentially exceeding 100 basis points by 2026 [5][12]. Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Regardless of who becomes the new Fed Chair, the monetary policy is likely to lean towards a dovish stance, driven by the need to support economic growth and manage inflation risks [12]. - The Trump administration is expected to favor a lower interest rate environment to stimulate the economy and mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs [12]. - Analysts forecast that the Fed may implement multiple rate cuts over the next year, potentially exceeding current market expectations [12].