21:30过后，变脸

Core Insights - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to a seven-month low of 216,000, decreasing by 6,000 from the previous week and lower than the market expectation of 225,000 [2] - However, the number of continuing claims rose by 7,000 to 1.96 million, the highest level since November 2021 [2] - This divergence in data reflects the current state of the U.S. labor market, indicating fewer layoffs but increased difficulty in reemployment [2] Implications for the Federal Reserve - The decrease in initial claims suggests that the economy is not in a bad state, which may prevent the Federal Reserve from reacting too strongly [2] - The rise in continuing claims indicates a cooling labor market, suggesting that while the economy is not collapsing, it is slowing down [2] - The combined signals imply that while a rate cut is reasonable, it is not urgent, indicating a need for careful monitoring of economic data [2] Market Reactions - Following the data release, gold prices dropped over $30 from the day's high, while the U.S. dollar index reached a new daily high [2] - The market's previous gains were largely based on expectations of a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, but the latest data suggests that the economic situation is not weak enough to warrant immediate action [2] - The market requires data that is "bad enough" to justify maintaining previous price levels, indicating a need for balanced economic indicators [2]