Robinhood stock soars 8% today: is HOOD leading the prediction-markets rally?

Core Insights - Robinhood stock (NASDAQ: HOOD) surged nearly 8% following the announcement of a partnership with Susquehanna International Group to acquire a 90% stake in LedgerX, marking a significant move into regulated prediction-markets and derivatives trading [2][3][7] Deal Details - The acquisition of LedgerX, previously owned by FTX and now regulated by the CFTC, is set to close in early 2026 and is expected to enhance Robinhood's product offerings [5][8] - The deal resulted in a notable increase in trading volume, with retail investors leading the initial surge [6][9] Revenue Potential - Analysts suggest that if Robinhood successfully launches a futures and derivatives exchange, it could unlock new fee revenue and diversify its product mix, potentially reshaping the company's revenue outlook [4][10] - Piper Sandler estimates that the LedgerX rollout could yield mid-eight-figure incremental revenue if successful [13] Competitive Landscape - Robinhood faces competition from established derivatives venues like CME Group and newer regulated exchanges, but its unique retail user base and mobile distribution may provide a strategic advantage [11][12] Market Reaction - The market responded positively to the news, adding over $1 billion to Robinhood's market cap, with options traders adjusting for new upside scenarios [9]