Affirm is Winning Transactions, But the Price Tag Bites Hard

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is experiencing a high valuation with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 5.12X, significantly above its three-year median of 4.08X and the broader industry's 4.78X, indicating that investors are pricing in an almost flawless future [1][2] - The company generated $769 million in free cash flow over the past year, marking a 27.8% increase, which reflects improving operational traction, although it trades at a price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) ratio of 31.16X, higher than the industry's 27.25X [4] - Affirm's repeat customer transactions accounted for 96% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, indicating strong customer loyalty and potential for sustained transaction growth [5][7] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a 566.7% year-over-year increase to $1 per share, with revenue projections for fiscal 2026 and 2027 expected to grow by 26% and 22.8%, respectively [10] - Affirm's Gross Merchandise Value is anticipated to exceed $47.5 billion for fiscal 2026, with the company beating earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, averaging a surprise of 129.3% [11] Market Position and Growth Strategy - Affirm has broadened its relevance in everyday spending categories, with active merchants increasing by 30% year-over-year to 419,000, supporting a 52.2% year-over-year jump in transactions to 41.4 million [6][7] - The Affirm Card is a strategic growth initiative aimed at becoming a primary access point for Affirm services, with 500,000 card members added in the fiscal first quarter [8] - The partnership with Shopify is set to expand into Europe, which is expected to enlarge the addressable market and diversify revenue streams, with active consumers reaching 24.1 million, a 24% year-over-year increase [9] Competitive Landscape - Competition in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) segment remains intense, with well-capitalized players like PayPal and Block expanding aggressively, and Walmart's shift to Klarna highlights the challenges in retaining major merchants [15] - Affirm faces rising operating expenses, which increased by 25.9% in fiscal 2023 and continued to rise in subsequent years, necessitating firm cost control to maintain margins [16] Financial Health - The company ended the fiscal first quarter with $1.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents, a 5.5% increase from the end of fiscal 2025, while funding debt rose to $1.8 billion, resulting in a long-term debt-to-capital ratio of 70.6%, significantly above the industry's 13.4% [17]