升值动能不断积累 人民币稳的基础进一步夯实

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a high point not seen in over a year, with both onshore and offshore RMB trading around 7.08 against the dollar, indicating a "double strong" trend between the RMB and the dollar [1][2] Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - China's economy has shown resilience this year, with exports strengthening and a favorable international balance of payments, achieving a total foreign-related income and expenditure of $11.6 trillion in the first three quarters, a historical high for the same period [1] - There has been a net inflow of cross-border capital amounting to $119.7 billion, surpassing the level from the previous year, contributing to the RMB's strength [1] - The RMB's appreciation is supported by stable expectations in the foreign exchange market, particularly following the recent summit between the Chinese and US leaders, which has improved bilateral relations [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is anticipated to further support the RMB's strength [2] - The end of the year is traditionally a peak season for currency settlement, which is expected to provide additional upward momentum for the RMB [2] - The foreign exchange market in China has demonstrated resilience and vitality amid complex international conditions, with rational market expectations and orderly trading [2] Group 3: Risk Management and Market Behavior - More enterprises are adopting a neutral stance on exchange rate risks, and there is a steady improvement in risk management capabilities, which enhances the stability of the RMB [2] - The price mechanism is increasingly playing a role in balancing market supply and demand, further solidifying the foundation for a stable RMB exchange rate [2]