Hard for Eli Lilly to move significantly higher from here in the short-term: Kessef Capital's Yaffee

Core Viewpoint - The potential strong data from Amgen's drug Maritide could exert pressure on Eli Lilly's shares, particularly due to concerns about side effects and market competition [1][3]. Company Analysis - Eli Lilly is expected to face significant competition in the obesity drug market, with three drugs already on the market and four in advanced clinical studies by the time Maritide is projected to receive FDA approval in 2028 or 2029 [3]. - The valuation of Eli Lilly is currently high, trading at approximately 35 times next year's earnings estimates, which raises concerns about its ability to move significantly higher in the short term [7][6]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in stock price, but there is a risk that favorable data for Maritide could lead investors to take profits from Eli Lilly [6]. Industry Insights - The obesity drug market is projected to grow from $20 billion in the US this year to $150 billion by 2030, indicating a transformative opportunity for companies involved in this drug class [9]. - The current drug category, including incretins and amylins, is noted for its potential to prevent morbidity and mortality associated with common chronic conditions, making it a significant area of focus for pharmaceutical companies [10]. - The Institute for Clinical Economic Research highlighted that certain drugs, like Zepbound, not only improve quality of life but also provide cost savings to the healthcare system, emphasizing the economic benefits of this drug category [10].