一通电话后，人民币突破新高！但股市还要小心一个风险...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent appreciation of the RMB is a result of a temporary reconciliation between China and the US, which may lead to a shift in economic focus from external demand to internal demand [4][11][31] - The potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the acceleration of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are also significant implications of this reconciliation [5][31] - The market may experience short-term chaos due to the unwinding of leveraged hedge positions as trading logic changes, leading to unexpected market volatility [12][14][65] Group 2 - The long-standing macroeconomic issues have primarily revolved around the US-China rivalry, with the US using aggressive interest rate hikes to draw capital back to the US, impacting global markets [17][18][21] - The Chinese strategy of maintaining low interest rates has been aimed at protecting the banking system, stabilizing prices, and enhancing export competitiveness [28][29] - The shift towards internal demand will likely be supported by the repatriation of cross-border capital, especially as the Federal Reserve has more room to cut rates [36][37] Group 3 - The long-term effects include a potential recovery in domestic prices and demand, as well as a rotation in the stock market between internal demand and technology sectors [33][41] - The positions of Europe and Japan in the global market are expected to decline further, as their industries have been struggling in recent years [43][44] - The bond market may face challenges, with the possibility of a bear market if the central bank does not inject liquidity [46][47] Group 4 - The dynamics of gold and US Treasury bonds may reverse, influenced by central bank actions regarding gold purchases and the overall market sentiment [47][54] - The correlation between gold, Bitcoin, and US Treasuries may decrease as hedge positions are unwound, especially if the geopolitical tensions ease [51][53] - The conclusion emphasizes that while the US-China rivalry may have reached a temporary pause, it remains a long-term issue, and China must focus on strengthening its own economic position [56][61]