时报观察丨升值动能不断积累 人民币稳的基础进一步夯实

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar reflects a dual strength in both currencies, with the RMB reaching a high point not seen in over a year, supported by various economic factors [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The RMB to USD central parity rate was adjusted upwards on November 26, reaching around 7.08, with both onshore and offshore RMB showing gains [1]. - The USD index has risen from approximately 96 in mid-September to around 100, while the RMB has shown an upward trend against the dollar, indicating a strong performance against a basket of currencies [1]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - China's economy has demonstrated resilience this year, with enhanced export strength and a favorable international balance of payments, totaling $11.6 trillion in foreign exchange receipts for the first three quarters, a historical high for the period [1]. - There has been a net inflow of $119.7 billion in cross-border capital, surpassing the previous year's figures, indicating a positive trend in foreign exchange market expectations and supply-demand dynamics [1]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to further support the RMB's strength, alongside the traditional seasonal peak for currency settlement at year-end [2]. - The foreign exchange market in China has remained stable amid complex international conditions, with a general expectation for the RMB to maintain stability or even appreciate in the near term [2]. - Companies are increasingly adopting a neutral stance on exchange rate risks, improving their risk management capabilities, which is expected to solidify the foundation for a stable RMB exchange rate [2].