美联储“棋局”变幻，降息预期飙至85%！美股三大指数集体上扬

Market Overview - The US stock market showed a positive trend on November 26, with all three major indices closing higher: the Dow Jones increased by 314.67 points (0.67%) to 47,427.12 points, the Nasdaq rose by 189.10 points (0.82%) to 23,214.69 points, and the S&P 500 gained 46.73 points (0.69%) to 6,812.61 points [1] Federal Reserve Expectations - There is a growing expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with traders estimating an 85% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, driven by various economic factors [1] - Recent labor data showed initial jobless claims at 216,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous revised figure, which was below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 225,000 [1] - The Fed's Beige Book report indicated stable economic activity but noted a decline in overall consumer spending, with some concerns about a potential slowdown in economic activity in the coming months [1] Personnel Changes Impact - US Treasury Secretary Scott Basset indicated that President Trump is likely to announce the next Federal Reserve Chair before Christmas, with Kevin Hassett being a leading candidate, which has shifted market expectations towards a more dovish stance on interest rates [2] - Following hints from Fed officials supporting a rate cut, traders now believe there is about an 80% chance of a December rate cut [2] Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, nine out of eleven sectors rose, with utilities and technology sectors leading gains at 1.32% and 1.27%, respectively, while communication services and healthcare sectors saw declines of 0.49% and 0.25% [2] Technology Stocks - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Oracle up over 4%, and several others like AMD, ASML, and Broadcom rising over 3% [3] - Tesla's stock increased by 1.71%, despite facing significant sales pressure in Europe, where October sales plummeted by 48.5% year-over-year [3] Financial and Energy Stocks - Financial stocks generally advanced, with Mizuho Financial and Barclays rising over 3%, while major banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan increased by over 1% [3] - Energy stocks also saw upward movement, with Apache Corporation rising over 2% and Duke Energy increasing by over 1% [3] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) experienced a slight decline of 0.03%, with mixed performances among Chinese stocks, including gains for Vipshop and Pinduoduo, while iQIYI and Kingsoft Cloud saw significant drops [3]