期铜突破11000美元大关，受助于美国降息概率提高【11月26日LME收盘】

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices have reached a near one-month high, driven by expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and a shift in metal flows to U.S. inventories, suggesting further price increases ahead [1]. Group 1: Copper Market Insights - On November 26, LME three-month copper rose by $157, or 1.45%, closing at $10,975.00 per ton, marking the highest level since October 30 [2]. - The copper price hit a historical high of $11,200 per ton on October 29, amid concerns over tightening supply from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia [4]. - Ewa Manthey, a commodity strategist at ING, indicated that the upward risk for copper is increasing due to supply challenges, low inventories, and ongoing trade distortions, predicting a tightening supply-demand balance by 2026 [4]. - Nicholas Snowdon from Mercuria noted a surplus of 350,000 to 400,000 tons in the global cathode copper market this year, while there is a 500,000-ton deficit in copper concentrate, a situation expected to persist into next year [4]. - Snowdon emphasized that LME copper prices need to rise to attract copper back from the U.S. to the global market, where the U.S. currently holds 70% of global cathode copper inventories, potentially increasing to 90% by Q1 2026 [4]. - LME registered warehouse copper inventories have decreased by 42% this year, with significant metal flows directed to the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum increased by $60.50, or 2.16%, closing at $2,861.00 [2]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $63.50, or 2.12%, closing at $3,056.50 [2]. - LME three-month lead decreased by $1.00, or 0.05%, closing at $1,979.50 [2]. - LME three-month tin increased by $444.00, or 1.18%, closing at $37,991.00, the highest since April 2, driven by fund activity and ongoing supply concerns [5].