新预算案“加税至历史最高”，英国竭力守住“最后一道债务防线”，斯塔默政府面临“政治冲击”

Core Viewpoint - The UK Labour government's budget proposal aims to raise taxes to the highest level in history, addressing a fiscal gap due to lowered productivity forecasts and increased welfare spending, which has sparked concerns about the government's governance capabilities [1][2]. Taxation Measures - The budget includes an additional £26 billion in taxes, on top of £40 billion already raised since last year, bringing the total tax burden to 38% of GDP by the end of the parliamentary term [1]. - Key tax measures include: - Freezing the personal income tax threshold for an additional three years, expected to generate £12.7 billion by the 2030-31 fiscal year [4][6]. - Limiting salary sacrifice schemes, projected to yield nearly £5 billion by the 2029-30 fiscal year [6]. - Introducing a "mansion tax" on properties valued over £2 million starting April 2028, with annual fees ranging from £2,500 to £7,500 [6]. - Increasing dividend tax rates by 2 percentage points starting April 2026 [6]. Economic Impact - Despite a downshift in economic growth and household income forecasts, the market welcomed the government's commitment to fiscal discipline, leading to a drop in 10-year government bond yields [1][3]. - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) unexpectedly released its assessment report before the budget announcement, causing market volatility and raising questions about the government's handling of sensitive information [7][8]. Political Repercussions - The budget has faced significant political backlash, with opposition leaders criticizing the government for breaking promises and calling for resignations [8]. - Internal pressures have also mounted, as the Chancellor had to abandon plans to cut welfare spending and make concessions on winter fuel subsidies due to dissent from Labour MPs [8]. - The situation has created a precarious environment for the Chancellor, with speculation about potential successors if the political and economic pressures continue to escalate [8].