市场分析：日本“债务幻觉”堪忧 人为低利率恐引爆货币危机

Core Viewpoint - Japan's massive government debt, while perceived as manageable due to low bond yields, poses a significant risk as the reality of this debt is being overlooked [1] Group 1: Debt Situation - Japan's government debt has remained at astronomical levels for a long time, yet bond yields have largely stayed low over the past decade [1] - The low interest rates have created a dangerous illusion that the enormous debt is not a problem [1] Group 2: Recent Policy Actions - The new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, recently announced a fiscal stimulus plan intended to showcase a departure from previous policies [1] - This plan inadvertently exemplifies the dangerous illusion regarding Japan's debt situation [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The Bank of Japan has suppressed interest rates through large-scale bond purchases and previously implemented yield curve control policies [1] - The mechanism of suppressing yields was sustainable before the COVID-19 pandemic, but the subsequent inflation wave has led to global central banks raising interest rates [1] - The end of the pandemic has marked the conclusion of Japan's interest rate suppression experiment, transitioning the world into a high-interest rate equilibrium [1] - Continuing to suppress rates in this new environment could lead to a severe depreciation cycle of the currency [1]