观车 · 论势 || 技术循序渐进，液态电池不过时

Core Viewpoint - The commercialization timeline for solid-state batteries is uncertain, with experts predicting a range from 2027 to 2035 for various stages of market entry, while half-solid batteries are currently the focus of commercialization efforts [1][2][3] Group 1: Solid-State Battery Commercialization - Solid-state batteries are expected to face significant technical and cost challenges before achieving mass production, with industry consensus suggesting a timeline of 2032 to 2033 for commercial application [2][3] - Current predictions for solid-state battery commercialization vary, with some experts suggesting small-scale production could begin as early as 2027, while others believe large-scale commercialization may not occur until 2030 or later [2][3] Group 2: Half-Solid and Liquid Batteries - Half-solid batteries, referred to as "solid-liquid batteries," are seen as a transitional solution before solid-state batteries become mainstream, with a projected large-scale deployment window between 2025 and 2030 [3] - Liquid batteries are expected to maintain a significant market share, with projections indicating they will account for over 70% of the global power battery market at least until 2030, highlighting their ongoing relevance and potential for improvement [3][4] Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Consumer Perception - The industry warns against the over-hyping of solid-state batteries, which may lead to unhealthy market expectations and consumer misconceptions about the obsolescence of liquid batteries [1][3] - A multi-technology approach is deemed essential for the future of power batteries, with liquid, half-solid, and solid-state batteries expected to coexist and cater to different market segments [4]