Core Insights - The Bank of Japan's committee member, Akira Noguchi, emphasizes that once supply and demand conditions tighten and begin to generate upward momentum, sustained price increases are not uncommon, as companies will compensate for previously delayed cost pass-throughs [1] - The sustainability of core inflation reaching the 2% target depends entirely on the momentum of wage increases and their spread to small and medium-sized enterprises and local economies [1] - If the price target is achieved in the latter half of the forecast period, the Bank of Japan should adjust interest rates at an appropriate pace to align with this timeline, indicating a need for a gradual increase in policy rates to smoothly reach the neutral rate when the 2% inflation target is met [1] Economic Context - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's economy has been limited so far [1] - A rapid or slow adjustment in policy rates could lead to issues; a fast rate hike may weaken wage growth momentum, making the 2% inflation target more elusive [1] - The Bank of Japan must exercise caution in policy adjustments due to the strong inertia of long-term deflation and zero inflation, despite prices having risen over 2% for more than three consecutive years [1] Risks of Policy Adjustment - The risk of slow policy adjustment lies in increasing the instability of economic activity and prices [1] - If the central bank decides not to raise rates until the price target is met, controlling inflation may become difficult unless a significant one-time increase in policy rates is implemented [1]
野口旭：若物价目标在展望报告预测期的下半年实现 日本央行应以适当步伐调整利率
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-27 01:59