瑞银：看好大宗商品后市表现，美联储12月降息机率仍是五五比

Core Viewpoint - UBS Wealth Management's Chief Investment Officer for Global Commodities and Forex, Dominic Schnider, anticipates an acceleration in global economic growth next year, leading to a favorable outlook for commodities, particularly energy and grains, which are currently seen as undervalued [1] Group 1: Commodity Outlook - Investors are diversifying their portfolios, showing optimism for commodity performance, especially beyond gold [1] - UBS expects gold prices to be around $4,500 next year, potentially dropping to $4,300 by the fourth quarter [1] - Energy and grain prices are highlighted as particularly cheap, suggesting investment opportunities in these sectors [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Schnider believes there is a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with an expected reduction of 50 basis points in the first half of next year [1] - The anticipated policy rate for next year is projected to be around 3.33%, with a possibility of dropping to 3% [1] Group 3: Currency Forecast - The dollar is expected to have a modest decline in the low to mid-single digits next year, but optimism may return as policy rates approach neutral levels [1] - A stabilization of the dollar is anticipated in the second half of the year [1]