Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-27 02:18Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities reports a target price of $206 per ADR and HKD 201 per share for Alibaba, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on a segmented valuation approach for FY2027 [1] Segment Summaries - E-commerce Business Valuation: Alibaba's e-commerce business is assigned a valuation of 10x P/EBITA for FY2027, with instant retail receiving a valuation of 0 [1] - Cloud Computing Valuation: The cloud computing segment is valued at 5x PS, indicating strong performance that exceeds market expectations [1] - International E-commerce Valuation: The international e-commerce business is assigned a valuation of 1x PS [1] - Financial Performance: The company’s FY2026 Q2 CMR revenue growth remains at 10%, with the Taotian Group achieving single-digit growth in EBITA after excluding flash purchase losses [1] - Flash Purchase Business: The flash purchase segment is transitioning from scale expansion to efficiency optimization, with expected losses aligning with forecasts [1] - AI Revenue Growth: In FY2026 Q2, capital expenditure reached 31.5 billion, with cloud revenue growing by 34%, and AI revenue showing a three-digit year-on-year increase, accounting for over 20% of total revenue [1] - Future Outlook for Cloud Business: Alibaba Cloud is expected to continue its "one cloud, multiple chips" strategy to meet strong AI customer demand, with revenue growth in the cloud business anticipated to accelerate [1]