美联储褐皮书：美国经济冷暖并存，消费市场“K型分化”加剧

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that U.S. economic activity has shown little change in recent weeks, with overall consumer spending declining except for high-income groups [1] - Employment levels have slightly decreased, while prices have risen moderately [1] - There is a growing risk of economic activity slowing in the coming months, although some optimism exists in the manufacturing sector [1] Consumer Spending - High-income consumers are maintaining spending levels, while middle and low-income households are tightening their budgets [1][10] - Retailers are experiencing a decline in sales for previously increased-priced items, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards seeking discounts [6] Employment Trends - Companies are increasingly opting for hiring freezes and natural attrition instead of direct layoffs to manage labor costs [2][9] - There is a notable wage pressure in manufacturing, construction, and healthcare sectors due to a decrease in new immigrant labor [3] Impact of Government Shutdown - The recent government shutdown negatively affected consumer spending, with increased demand for food assistance noted during the interruption of SNAP benefits [4] - The shutdown has disrupted the collection and release of key economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates [4] Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December has risen to approximately 80% following supportive statements from key policymakers [5] Regional Economic Insights - In Boston, restaurant menu prices remain stable, but there are expectations of future price increases due to rising beef costs [6] - New York's financial and tech sectors continue to see strong demand for skilled labor, particularly in artificial intelligence [6] - In Philadelphia, consumer-facing businesses are struggling to raise prices as customers increasingly seek discounts [6] - In Cleveland, while AI data center demand remains strong, other sectors are experiencing weakness, leading to a cautious market outlook [6] - In Richmond, concerns about declining consumer confidence are affecting large purchases [7] - In Atlanta, businesses are planning to raise prices on in-demand products to mitigate the impact of overall price increases on consumption [7] - In San Francisco, low-income groups are cutting back on non-essential spending, while high-income consumers' demand remains stable [10]