供需紧平衡玉米价格重心上移

Core Insights - The corn market has shown a strong linkage between futures and spot prices, with new corn prices rising by 6% to 8% year-on-year due to structural supply tightness, boosting market confidence [1] - The planting area for corn in China is expected to increase steadily, reaching 44.87 million hectares by 2025, with total production estimated at approximately 29.616 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.24 million tons [1] - The consumption of corn for feed accounts for 65% to 70% of total demand, with a 2% year-on-year increase in the national pig stock and a 6% increase in compound feed production over the past 10 months [3][4] - The deep processing capacity for corn has exceeded 125 million tons, supporting industrial consumption, with a 6.3% year-on-year increase in deep processing corn consumption from January to October [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The new corn harvest has seen smooth inventory digestion, with major processing enterprises' corn stocks down about 20% year-on-year, and stocks at northern ports down 78% year-on-year, leading to rising prices [1] - The winter season is expected to bring increased snowfall, which may hinder corn transportation from Northeast China, leading to higher transportation costs and potentially higher corn prices [4] - Domestic corn imports are expected to be significantly lower than the 7.2 million tons tariff quota, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance in the corn market [5] Group 2: Demand Factors - The substitution advantage of wheat over corn has weakened, further boosting corn feed demand, with projected feed consumption for the 2025/2026 season expected to remain high at 193 to 195 million tons [4] - The proactive purchasing by state-owned enterprises like China Grain Reserves Corporation has reduced supply pressure during the new corn harvest season, effectively stabilizing market prices [4]