Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-27 03:11Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is at a critical juncture after three years of growth, with investor sentiment shifting from optimism to caution as competition intensifies and potential subsidy reductions loom [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Policy Outlook - Investors are increasingly concerned about the impact of fierce market competition and subsidy cuts on the operational performance of OEMs and suppliers, particularly in Q1 2026 [1] - A Morgan Stanley report indicates that while there is a prevailing pessimism, any marginal sales improvement or policy updates could serve as significant catalysts for the industry [1] - Most investors expect that national and local stimulus measures, such as "trade-in" and "replacement subsidies," will continue in 2024, but with a cautious outlook on the effectiveness, predicting a potential reduction in subsidy amounts by 30-50% [2] Group 2: Traditional Automakers vs. New Players - There is a slight preference emerging for traditional automakers, driven by low expectations and potential restructuring opportunities, alongside technological endorsements from companies like Huawei [3] - Huawei's influence is noted as a key variable in reshaping the industry, with its partnerships leading to new smart vehicle brands and significant presence at auto shows [3] - Despite ongoing discussions around new players like BYD and NIO, concerns remain about BYD's potential market share loss in 2024, highlighting a divided investor sentiment [3] Group 3: Opportunities in Automation - The cautious market sentiment contrasts with strong interest in autonomous driving (AD) and Robotaxi sectors, with expectations for the commercial viability of driverless Robotaxi models increasing [4] - Anticipation is building for the release of L3 autonomous driving regulations in China by mid-2026, which could spark renewed enthusiasm for autonomous vehicle clusters [5] - Suppliers with core technological advantages are expected to benefit from the rising penetration of L2+ and higher-level autonomous driving technologies in the market [5]