Core Viewpoint - Yuran Dairy (09858) has seen a stock price increase of over 9%, currently trading at 3.98 HKD with a transaction volume of 106 million HKD, driven by positive market sentiment regarding the dairy industry and the company's strong position as the largest raw milk supplier globally [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Yuran Dairy is recognized as the world's largest raw milk supplier, with a comprehensive business model covering the entire dairy industry chain, including breeding, grassland, feed, and dairy cattle farming, all of which are industry-leading [1] - The company is expected to benefit from a gradual stabilization and recovery in raw milk prices in the first half of 2026, following a prolonged decline in milk prices [1] Group 2: Market Trends - According to Huayuan Securities, the improvement in both supply and demand dynamics is anticipated to lead to a significant increase in revenue from raw milk sales as prices rise [1] - CITIC Securities forecasts that the number of breeding cows may decrease by over 10% starting in 2024, leading to a domestic shortage of cattle supply, which is a primary driver of the current beef price increase [1] - The previous cycle saw an 11% decline in cattle inventory, resulting in a cumulative beef price increase of over 60%, while the current cycle has seen live cattle prices rise by less than 20%, indicating further potential for price increases [1] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The Ministry of Commerce has extended the investigation into import beef safeguard measures, which introduces uncertainty regarding beef imports but does not affect the overall logic of the domestic cycle reversal [1] - The ongoing upward trend in beef prices and raw milk prices is expected to positively impact the profits of leading dairy companies [1]
港股异动 | 优然牧业(09858)涨超9% 机构看好肉牛原奶周期共振 龙头牧业企业利润改善可期