2025年第四季度中国经济观察-毕马威

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's economy is expected to achieve its annual growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a stable performance in the first three quarters, where the actual GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous year's level [1][11][24] - However, the economic growth rate slowed in the third quarter to 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter, primarily due to the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, reduced policy intensity, and ongoing weakness in the real estate sector [1][11][24] - The report highlights a divergence between domestic and external demand, as well as between supply and demand, with manufacturing investment experiencing rare negative growth due to external uncertainties and "anti-involution" policies [1][11][24] Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, the actual GDP growth was 5.2%, with the third quarter showing a slowdown to 4.8%, reflecting a "high first, low second" trend [1][11][24] - The manufacturing sector faced negative growth for the first time since Q3 2020, influenced by "anti-involution" policies and a decline in real estate demand [1][11][24] - Service consumption and emerging export categories demonstrated resilience, becoming significant supports for economic growth [1][11][24] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 0.5% in the first three quarters, with a significant drop to -6.2% in Q3, driven by weak real estate sales and reduced local government spending on infrastructure [1][11][15] - The report anticipates a recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure investment in Q4, supported by new policy measures and a more favorable external environment [1][11][15] - Real estate investment remains a major drag on fixed asset investment, with a decline from -12.1% in Q2 to -19.2% in Q3 [1][11][15] Consumption Insights - Social retail sales growth slowed to 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 showing a further decline to 3.5% [1][11][14] - Service consumption maintained strong resilience, with service retail sales growing by 5.2%, outperforming goods retail growth [1][11][14] - Online retail sales increased by 9.8%, with non-physical goods online retail sales surging by 26.7% [1][11][14] Export Performance - Exports grew by 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 growth rising to 6.5% [1][11][16] - The growth was bolstered by a 12.6% increase in exports to non-US markets, effectively offsetting declines in exports to the US [1][11][16] - High-end manufacturing and green product exports showed significant growth, with integrated circuit exports rising by 31.4% and electric passenger vehicle exports increasing by 51.2% [1][11][16] Policy Focus - The report emphasizes a shift in policy focus towards high-quality development, with an emphasis on innovation and domestic demand [1][11][6] - Recent macroeconomic policies have aimed to stabilize domestic demand, with significant financial tools and local debt issuance to support project construction and debt repayment [1][11][6] - The implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the direction for the next five years, focusing on building a modern industrial system and enhancing innovation efficiency [1][11][6]