Juno markets 外匯：澳元为何走强？市场预期央行将维持利率不变

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has strengthened against the US dollar (USD) for the fifth consecutive trading day, currently trading around 0.6530, supported by positive Australian economic data and increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1] - Recent Australian economic data has shown strong performance, with private capital expenditure in Q3 rising by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter, significantly higher than the previous quarter's 0.2% and exceeding the market expectation of 0.5%. Additionally, the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.8% year-on-year, above the previous value of 3.5% and the market consensus of 3.6% [2] - The market anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain the official cash rate at 3.6% in December, as inflation remains above the target range of 2% to 3%. The probability of a rate cut in December is currently only 6% according to ASX 30-day bank bill futures [2] Group 2 - In contrast, the US dollar has been weakening, with the dollar index trading around 99.50. This is primarily due to heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating an over 84% probability of a 25 basis point cut, a significant increase from 30% a week prior [3] - Several Federal Reserve officials have signaled a dovish stance, supporting the rate cut expectations. Notably, Fed Governor Stephen Milan mentioned that non-farm payroll data supports a December rate cut, while New York Fed President John Williams also referenced a potential rate cut [3] - US economic data has shown mixed signals, with initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 coming in better than expected, but September retail sales growth slowing and the November consumer confidence index dropping significantly, indicating uncertainty in the economic recovery [3] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD currency pair has broken above the 9-day exponential moving average, indicating strengthened short-term upward momentum. The pair is currently in a rectangular consolidation range, with potential upward testing of the 0.6630 area. Key support levels are at 0.6500 and the 9-day EMA at 0.6495, with a drop below these levels potentially testing the lower boundary around 0.6420 [5]