美降息预期持续升温，金价高位震荡，黄金ETF基金(159937)备受市场关注

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a mixed outlook for the gold market, with short-term fluctuations in gold ETF prices and optimistic long-term projections for gold prices due to economic uncertainties and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3]. Group 2 - As of November 27, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) decreased by 0.14%, with a latest price of 8.98 yuan, while it saw a cumulative increase of 0.59% over the past week [2]. - The liquidity of the gold ETF fund showed a turnover of 0.79% during the day, with a transaction volume of 312 million yuan, and an average daily transaction of 1.488 billion yuan over the past month [2]. - On November 26, spot gold rose by 0.80% to $4,163.78 per ounce, with trading occurring between $4,129.91 and $4,173.42 [2]. - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity remained stable, with some districts reporting slight declines and others slight growth, suggesting increased risks of economic slowdown in the coming months [2]. - For the week ending November 22, initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest level since April, exceeding economists' expectations [3]. - Strong economic indicators, such as a 0.9% increase in non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, have not reversed the expectations for interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a December rate cut rising to 85% [3]. - Most banks project that the average gold price will exceed $4,000 by 2026, with Deutsche Bank raising its forecast to $4,450 due to stable investor flows and continued central bank demand [3]. - Recent data showed a net outflow of 18.0228 million yuan from the gold ETF fund, but over the past five trading days, there were net inflows on four days, totaling 203 million yuan, with an average net inflow of 40.6145 million yuan [3].