债台高筑仍然狂撒8亿购苗，鳗鱼龙头在“赌”一个怎样的未来？

Core Viewpoint - Tianma Technology has become the global leader in eel stock, but this achievement comes at a significant cost, reflected in its high short-term debt of 2.7 billion yuan and a total debt of 6.6 billion yuan, raising concerns about its financial stability and ability to manage cash flow effectively [1][8][10]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2023, Tianma Technology reported a revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.11% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 70.78 million yuan, up 1.96% year-on-year. However, excluding one-time gains, the net profit decreased by 11.93% [4]. - The company's operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2023 was 6.75 million yuan, a decline of 39.24% compared to the previous year [7]. Debt and Liquidity Concerns - As of the third quarter of 2023, Tianma Technology's total liabilities reached 6.6 billion yuan, with interest-bearing debt at 4.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.54%. The current ratio stands at 0.91, significantly below the industry safety line [8][10]. - The company's asset-liability ratio is at 69.73%, which is considerably higher than the industry average, indicating a potential "interest swallowing profit" cycle [10]. Investment in Eel Farming - Despite financial pressures, Tianma Technology has aggressively invested in eel farming, purchasing eel fry at a historic low price of 7.8 yuan per fry, totaling 812 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 390% increase from 166 million yuan in 2024 [5]. - The company has built a complete industrial chain from eel feed research and development to farming, processing, and sales since its establishment in 2005 [2]. Market Dynamics and Risks - The eel farming industry is characterized by unstable profitability, heavily reliant on wild fry capture, which is subject to environmental factors and declining wild eel populations [12]. - The mismatch between farming capacity and output is evident, as Tianma Technology has not met its annual output targets since 2021, leading to increased inventory levels and potential price impacts [15][16]. Business Structure and Challenges - Concerns have been raised about the authenticity of Tianma Technology's closed-loop business model, with overlapping identities between customers and suppliers, which could indicate potential conflicts of interest [17]. - The company's feed business, which accounts for 70% of its revenue, is under pressure due to declining demand and increased competition, with feed revenue dropping by 16.11% year-on-year in the first half of 2023 [18]. Future Outlook - The eel market in Japan, which consumes 70% of the world's eels, is still recovering and does not match its peak levels from 2000. The pricing of Chinese eels is significantly lower than that of Japanese products, limiting profit margins [20]. - Regulatory risks are also looming, as proposals to list all eel species under Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species could disrupt the eel trade in East Asia [20].