世界黄金协会王立新：黄金涨跌不纠结 纳入资产底仓配置更稳妥

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached unprecedented highs, with significant increases in demand driven by gold ETFs and central bank purchases, indicating a strong bullish trend in the gold market [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The international gold price has set 47 new highs in 2025 and nearly 30 new highs in 2024, with a year-to-date increase of 54% in 2023, making it one of the top-performing assets globally [1]. - The World Gold Council's model attributes gold price movements to four main factors: U.S. dollar interest rates, geopolitical risks, global buying and selling momentum, and gold's own fundamentals [1]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - Global gold ETF holdings increased by 619 tons by Q3 2025, marking a historical record and serving as a key driver for rising gold prices [1]. - Central bank gold purchases have seen a continuous increase for 13 years, with annual purchases rising from 500 tons to 1000 tons between 2022 and 2024, creating strong demand support [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, central banks net purchased 634 tons of gold, with 95% of surveyed central banks indicating intentions to continue increasing gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since 2019 [2]. Group 3: Other Demand Aspects - Gold demand also includes jewelry, technology, and bullion, with only jewelry demand decreasing due to high prices affecting consumer purchasing willingness; however, the value of jewelry demand is still increasing [2]. - The average annualized return of gold in U.S. dollars over the past 50 years is approximately 10%, demonstrating gold's ability to provide stable returns [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investment in gold should not be viewed as a short-term speculative tool but rather as a strategic asset allocation, enhancing overall portfolio resilience and risk management [3]. - Recommended allocation of gold in a portfolio is between 5% to 20%, with a suggestion to avoid "all-in" strategies and to gradually accumulate gold [4]. Group 5: World Gold Council's Role - The World Gold Council is a global market development organization focused on promoting gold, improving investment channels, enhancing market trust, and building infrastructure for sustainable development in the gold industry [5].