国泰基金麻绎文：中长期看科技板块依然值得关注，海外算力和国产替代是两大主线

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a volatile upward trend this year, with the index recently surpassing the critical 4000-point level, indicating a phase of adjustment in the market [5][9]. Group 1: Market Overview - The current market is witnessing discussions around style rotation and sector shifts, with technology stocks needing adjustments after a period of gains [5][6]. - The recent positive year-on-year CPI data has led to a temporary recovery in some consumer stocks [5][6]. Group 2: Technology Stocks Outlook - The technology stock market can be divided into two main themes: overseas computing power and domestic substitution [6][9]. - The overseas computing power theme is driven by significant capital expenditure increases from leading cloud companies in the U.S., which has led to a sustained improvement in computing infrastructure and a rise in performance and orders for domestic companies in sectors like optical modules and servers [4][6][7]. - Despite recent declines in U.S. tech stocks, some companies, particularly in optical modules and optical chips, have reported earnings that exceeded expectations, demonstrating resilience in their stock prices [4][6]. Group 3: Domestic Substitution - The domestic substitution theme focuses on the semiconductor sector, particularly the low domestic substitution rate for semiconductor equipment [8]. - Anticipated expansions from domestic storage manufacturers are expected to create significant investment opportunities in semiconductor equipment, with two major storage companies expected to go public next year [8]. - The ongoing increase in storage prices, driven by rising demand for overseas servers, is likely to continue, further enhancing the investment landscape for domestic semiconductor equipment [8]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The A-share market may experience some fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, but for medium to long-term investments, the technology sector remains a focal point [9]. - The themes of overseas computing power and domestic substitution are highlighted as valuable areas for investment consideration, especially in light of potential monetary policy support and liquidity easing [9].