12月降息概率猛升至85%！褐皮书曝美联储双重困境

Core Viewpoint - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates a stagnating U.S. economy characterized by a weak job market and persistent inflationary pressures [2][12]. Economic Activity - Overall economic activity has shown little change in recent weeks, with most Federal Reserve districts reporting stability, while two districts noted slight declines and one reported slight growth [5]. - Consumer spending has further declined, primarily due to the government shutdown affecting consumer decision-making [3][6]. Employment Market - The job market remains weak, with a slight decrease in employment numbers reported, and about half of the districts indicating soft labor demand [7]. - Many employers are opting for hiring freezes and only replacing departing employees rather than outright layoffs, with some adjusting work hours instead of workforce size [7]. Inflation and Pricing - Tariffs continue to be a major concern, with many companies reporting tightened profit margins and increased financial pressure due to tariffs [7]. - Some businesses have noted price declines due to decreased demand or postponed tariffs, while there is a general expectation of ongoing cost pressures in the future [7]. Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased, with an 84.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut [9]. - The probability of cumulative rate cuts by January is 64.7%, with a 24.4% chance of a total cut of 50 basis points [10]. Market Outlook - Wall Street's optimism for the stock market is growing, with Goldman Sachs predicting a third consecutive rate cut in December, supported by easing inflation and a cooling labor market [12]. - Deutsche Bank strategists forecast the S&P 500 index could exceed 8000 points by the end of 2026, indicating an 18% upside potential driven by strong earnings and increasing stock buybacks [16].